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Sixteen players P1.P2.P16 play in a tournament.  They are divided into eight pairs at random.From each pair a winner is decided on the basis of a game played between the two players of the pair.Assuming that all the players are of equal strength, the probability that exactly one of the two players P1 and P2 is among the eight winners is
Options:
A .  415
B .  715
C .  815
D .  1730
Answer: Option C
:
C
Let E1(E2) denote the event that P1and P2are paired (not paired) together and let A denote the event that one of two players P1and P2is among the winners.
Since, P1 can be paired with any of the remaining 15 players.
We have, P(E1)=115
and P(E2)=1P(E1)=1115=1415
In case E1 occurs, it is certain that one of P1 and P2 will be among the winners. In case E2 occurs, the probability that exactly of P1 and P2 is among the winners is
P{(P1¯P2)(¯P1P2)}=P(P1¯P2)+P(¯P1P2)=P(P1)P(¯P2)+P(¯P1)P(P2)=(12)(112)+(112)(12)=14+14=12
ie, P(AE1)=1 and P(AE2)=12
By the total probability Rule,
P(A)=P(E1).P(AE1)+P(E1).P(AE2)=115(1)+1415(12)=815

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